Flywheel Timeline

Fed officially ends balance sheet reduction, stabilizing at ~$6.6T. Marks shift from tightening to neutral/accommodative stance.

New Fed Chair successor potentially appointed when Governor Adriana Kugler's seat becomes vacant.

GENIUS Act 10-month rulemaking deadline. Stablecoins must hold 1:1 reserves in USD and short-term Treasuries.

Jerome Powell's Fed Chair term ends, opening potential for new leadership and policy direction.

Japan and China accelerate Treasury divestment. Monitor for China holdings breaking below $650B.

BRICS nations implement local currency trade system, reducing dollar dependency.

Block/Square completes 4 million merchant rollout. Major e-commerce platforms accept Bitcoin via Lightning.

Stablecoin issuers become top 5 foreign Treasury holders as market cap approaches $1T.

Fed acknowledges structural deflationary pressure from AI (0.5-0.7% CPI drag, 27% labor cost reduction).

European digital euro pilot launches, increasing CBDC competitive pressure on dollar.

Bitcoin begins serving as unit of account in certain markets. Major retailers price goods in BTC alongside USD.

US debt-to-GDP exceeds 110%. Treasury auction stress, elevated yields, potential credit downgrades.

Countries using Bitcoin for international trade settlement. Bitcoin volatility declining to emerging market currency levels.